The Syrian Civil War, often referred to as a forgotten conflict, has reignited. What does this mean for the world? To understand, one only needs to revisit the last decade, as the concerns and impacts remain largely unchanged.
Refugees:
Syria has faced the largest refugee crisis in the world since 2011. Over 14 million people have been forced to flee their homes. With fresh fighting underway, this crisis is expected to deepen, potentially displacing even more people.
A Proxy War:
Syria has become a battleground for foreign forces with a multitude of players involved. Russian forces, Iranian militias, Hezbollah fighters, around 900 American troops, dozens of Turkish soldiers, and Israeli fighter jets are all operating in Syria, each pursuing distinct and often opposing goals. Russia and Iran are backing President Assad, while Turkey supports the rebels. Meanwhile, the U.S. is targeting extremist groups. These conflicting interests make Syria a powder keg of international rivalries.
The Islamic State (ISIS):
The instability and chaos caused by the Syrian Civil War in the last decade allowed ISIS to thrive. At one point, the group controlled a third of Syria, establishing a caliphate that became a hub of terror. They orchestrated attacks, radicalized individuals online, and strategically retreated when under attack. Although a coalition ultimately defeated ISIS, renewed fighting raises the risk of the group resurging.
These three primary concerns—another refugee crisis, a prolonged proxy war, and a possible ISIS resurgence—loom large over the global community. Adding to the mix are familiar West Asian variables such as rising oil prices and increased military deployments. In essence, this is a conflict with significant global financial and security implications.
The Main Players:
Turkey:
When anti-Assad protests began in 2011, Ankara supported the movement, with President Erdogan aiming to overthrow Bashar al-Assad. Turkey hosted Syrian opposition leaders and welcomed 3.6 million Syrian refugees. However, Assad was not Turkey’s only concern. The country is also home to Kurdish political and military groups, which Erdogan views as terrorists. As a result, Turkey has launched cross-border attacks on these Kurdish groups. Turkey’s position in the conflict is clear: it opposes both Assad and the Kurds while backing the rebels. The recent rebel seizure of Aleppo was likely supported by Erdogan, as such a major move would not have occurred without Turkey’s approval.
Russia:
An ally of Assad, Russia began supporting his regime early in the war by sending weapons and advisors. In 2015, Moscow escalated its involvement by launching airstrikes against rebel positions, significantly strengthening Assad’s position. This intervention gave Russia a crucial foothold in West Asia. However, the latest escalation in Syria has sparked concern in Moscow. Russian media is speculating about a conspiracy involving Ukraine, Turkey, France, the U.S., and Israel, designed to divert Russia’s attention from Ukraine. While the theory aligns with geopolitical logic, there is no concrete evidence to support it.
Iran:
Iran has also been a key backer of Assad, providing crucial support through Hezbollah and other militias. Iranian-backed fighters from Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iraq bolstered Assad’s army with experience and weapons, helping him regain control of significant territory. However, Iran’s focus has shifted recently to other priorities, such as tensions in Lebanon and elsewhere in the region. This has weakened its role in Syria, leaving Assad’s forces more vulnerable.
Current Situation:
Today, the foreign ministers of Turkey and Iran met in Ankara, revealing stark differences in their perspectives. Iran blamed the escalation on Israel and the U.S., while Turkey dismissed claims of foreign interference, instead accusing terrorist organizations in Syria of being aligned with America and Israel.
Russia has dispatched air support to Syria, and some Iranian militias have returned to bolster Assad’s regime. However, any counteroffensive will take time to organize, giving rebels a window to capture more territory. This is not only a military setback for Assad but also a political blow. Just as Assad appeared to be consolidating power—controlling over 60% of Syrian territory and regaining acceptance in the Arab world—the recent escalation has exposed his dependence on Russia and Iran. Without foreign support, his regime risks collapsing, much like the civilian government in Afghanistan.
The Syrian conflict is far from over, and its ramifications—spanning refugee crises, geopolitical tensions, and the resurgence of extremist groups—will continue to be felt globally.
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